EURAUD made another bounce off its support at the 1.4125-1.4150 area late last week and looks ready for a test of resistance at the 1.4500 major psychological mark. If this holds as a ceiling, the pair could head back to the bottom of the range once more.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the top of the range is more likely to keep gains in check than break. Stochastic is heading lower, also suggesting that sellers are regaining control of price action.
Note, however, that the gap between the moving averages is narrowing so an upward crossover might take place. If this goes on, buyers could gain more traction and push for a break above the range resistance.
Just the other week, the ECB decided to extend its QE program end-date to December 2017 even though they reduced the amount of monthly asset purchases for that extension period. This was viewed as an overall dovish move that would keep a lid on the euro’s gains.
However, the RBA could be mulling some additional easing itself since data from the Land Down Under has been disappointing lately. For one, the GDP report for Q3 printed a surprise contraction in growth. On the other hand, jobs data and underlying components of the trade balance indicated improvements.
Also, data from China has been mostly in line with expectations so demand for Australia’s raw material exports could be sustained. With that, the euro is still on weaker footing compared to the Aussie so the range could continue to hold.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way