Daily Forex Reports | by Kate Curtis | Thursday, 13 August 2015 04:52 UTC
USDCHF is still trending higher on its 4-hour chart, as the price dropped to the bottom of the rising channel then bounced off support. This could take the pair back up to the top of the range near the 1.0000 major psychological resistance.
The bottom of the channel also lines up with the 100 SMA, which has acted as a dynamic support level in the past. In addition, the short-term SMA is above the long-term 200 SMA, confirming that the ongoing uptrend is likely to carry on.
Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions, which means that sellers are exhausted and that buyers are ready to take over. RSI is also starting to move up from the oversold region, indicating a potential pickup in buying momentum.
The US dollar sold off heavily yesterday as profit-taking from its recent rallies took place. The currency drew additional support from the Chinese central bank’s decision to devalue their local currency, prompting the Greenback to appreciate in the process.
However, the PBOC devaluation is also weighing on Fed rate hike prospects, as this could spur weaker demand for commodity imports. Apart from being a drag on commodity-driven nations, it could set off another global slump in inflation and deter the US central bank from tightening monetary policy this year.
As for the franc, its rallies could be limited owing to the fact that the Swiss National Bank is willing to intervene if the currency appreciates too much. After all, the central bank is inclined to keep the franc weak in order to keep Swiss exports and domestic price levels supported.
With that, the path of least resistance is still to the upside since the US dollar could enjoy more safe-haven demand in the event of a global economic slowdown. US retail sales data could serve as a catalyst for further gains if the actual readings come in strong.
By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
Forex Market Analysis
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