Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 3, 2009
Mr.McDonell is the Chief Currency Coach at FX Bootcamp, a live forex training organization that teaches traders how to develop conservative trade plans based on technical and fundamental analysis, as well as addressing the psychological aspects of being a trader; all in real-time.
Unemployment Rate Report
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly Unemployment Rate report tomorrow (Dec 4). The report is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the US.
A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and should be taken as positive for the USD.
Analysts predict tomorrow’s rate to remain stable at 10.20%.
The Euro moved in a tight range without any meaningful moves technically. That kept the Euro above the rising trendline from 1.4827. We believe that testing this line is only a matter of time. And if the Dollar succeeds in breaking this line, it would put the Euro under pressure, because that break would mean that we are already in a correction for the whole move from 1.4827. Such a correction would take this pair to Fibonacci 50% for the short-term at 1.4972 as a first target, and may be Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4937 as a second target & an important support. On the other hand, short-term resistance is at 1.5143, and only breaking it would improve the “exhausted” technical outlook. If this break happens, it will target 1.5200 first, and may be 1.5260 later. But, as long as we are below 1.5143 exhaustion will lead this pair downwards to test several support levels and important trendlines.
• 1.5072: the rising trendline from 1.4827 on the hourly chart.
• 1.4972: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
• 1.4937: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.5143: November 25th top.
• 1.5200: resistance area from 2008.
• 1.5260: resistance area from 2008.
In spite of dropping 100 pips from Fibonacci resistance at 87.50, the price came back to break it, and it is approaching 88 this morning. We might hear later that this rise was caused by a series of small or “mild” interventions, in order to weaken the Yen. The matter of intervention continue to be important in these areas, and since the Japanese government do not announce that they did for w a while after the intervention, there is no way to predict when and where they are going to do it. Technically speaking, the price is heading now towards the top of the channel that is rising from last week’s bottom. This top is at 88.18, and it is resistance of the day. If broken the Dollar will continue to show strength, and will target the top of the supposed wedge formation at 88.58, and may be then we will see a test of November 23rd top 89.17. Support is provided by the rising trendline from this week’s low, which is currently at 87.29, breaking it would target 86.72 & 86.28.
• 87.29: the rising trendline from Monday’s low.
• 86.72: intraday top from last week.
• 86.28: the bottom of the rising trend channel from last weeks bottom.
• 88.18: the top of the rising trend channel from last weeks bottom.
• 88.72: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
• 89.17: Nov 23rd high.
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