The Australian dollar broke down during the trading session on Friday as the jobs numbers in America disappointed. While a bit counterintuitive, this is because the US dollar strength as the “risk off” trade came back into play. Gold markets rallying would be a benefit for this market, but quite frankly we have not seen that. The 0.76 level underneath is supportive, but I believe there is much more important structural support at the 0.75 level that the Australian dollar traders will be looking for. We may get a bounce occasionally, but those bounce should be thought of as offering value in the US dollar as it is favored and even with the jobs number being a bit less than expected, the Federal Reserve still looks very likely to raise interest rates in the near-term, while Australia is light years away from doing so.
The 0.7750 level above should be resistance, extending to the 0.78 level after that. I believe that the market should continue to find sellers in this general vicinity, but if we were clear the 0.78 handle, that would be a very bullish sign. That should send the market looking for the 0.80 level which is much more important on longer-term charts, going back decades. Overall though, I believe that the Aussie will continue to struggle, and that the US dollar will continue to be one of the biggest and strongest gainers in the Forex world overall. The US dollar had been oversold for quite some time, and that of course is starting to change against several currencies, the Australian dollar being one of them. The volatility should continue, but quite frankly that should work in our favor as Australian dollar traders do not like it, as the Australian dollar is considered to be “risky.”
Written by FX Empire