By Elliott Wave International
As the euro clings to the guardrail of a 7- (no, wait) 9- (Doh! there it goes again) now 11-year low, debate over the future of the eurozone’s currency rages on. And in the mix, the ultimate four-letter FOREX word just reared its ugly head: PARITY.
“The euro is likely to reach a 1-1 ratio with the dollar for the first time since 2002.” (Feb. 2, Wall Street Journal)
Amidst the flurry, we’d like to focus your attention on another word — CLARITY — and invite you to take an objective step back and evaluate why the euro is where it is today.
First, you have to go back to the beginning of the euro’s dramatic sell-off, to the early part of last year. At the time, the euro was orbiting a 2.5 year high against the U.S. dollar having soared 15% from its 2012 bottom. The strongest thing we remember about this time, though, was how certain mainstream analysts were in the euro’s ongoing upside potential.
There were, after all, plenty of “fundamental” reasons to embolden the bullish claim, such as: strong eurozone economic data, growing demand for the euro’s perceived safety, and most of all, an accommodative monetary policy by the European Central Bank.
In March 2014, ECB President Mario Draghi gave the ultimate green light to euro bulls: Draghi called the eurozone economy an “island of stability,” and foresaw no need for radical, currency-debasing rescue efforts such as rate cuts or quantitative easing. Here, these news items from the time set the scene:
“ECB unlocks the door for further euro strength… and helped the euro realize its pent-up bullish potential.” (March 8, 2014 Yahoo! Finance)
“Euro Strength Here to Stay, Unless ECB Steps In” (April 16, 2014 Reuters)
“The euro needs to cross the 1.42 handle before the ECB takes any action to weaken the currency.” (May 5, 2014 CNBC)
Yet despite the seemingly perfect euro rally set-up, the bottomed dropped out on May 8, 2014. The euro’s dramatic reversal kicked in, even as the ECB held true to its no-action policy until finally pulling the QE trigger on January 22, 2015.
In the end, the euro’s fundamental backdrop did NOT lend itself to a major turn.
But in fact, the Elliott wave pattern forefront on the euro’s price chart — did. One day after the euro’s 2014 peak, our May 9, 2014 Currency Pro Service posted a special video forecast for the most popular currency pair on the planet: the EURUSD. In that video, Currency Pro Service editor Jim Martens identified a multi-year ending diagonal on the euro’s daily price chart. And, as its name suggests, this particular Elliott wave pattern signaled an “end” to the rising trend. Please go ahead and watch this clip from Jim’s video to hear him explain the diagonal’s bearish implications in person:
As it turns out, the ECB did not “unlock the door to the euro’s strength.” However, this single Elliott wave pattern did unlock the door to the euro weakness we see today.
And now, as part of our brand-new “Pro Service Outlook 2015” Club EWI event, Jim Martens has recorded a special 8-minute video of the near- and long-term trend changes in store for the EURUSD. There, Jim drops a huge bombshell by showing several key pieces of evidence to support a near-term euro bottom, including a potentially complete five-wave decline from the 2014 peak.
Watch the clip below to enjoy his analysis firsthand:
From there, Jim walks you through the exact trajectory prices must take to confirm a strong move to the upside.
Now get this: Jim’s FOREX video is the first of a total FOUR videos included in our “Pro Service Outlook 2015” event. The remaining coverage includes EURGBP, EURJPY, crude oil and gold — a compilation of some of the world’s most highly traded financial markets. And the best part is, you can watch all four videos right now, for FREE!
Never before have we put together such an incredible offer for our ever-growing community of Club EWI members. Join today and take advantage before we wake up and realize we’ve totally lost our marbles! Access to this incredible “Pro Service Outlook 2015” event ends on February 20, so time is limited.
Or — for existing Club EWI members, click here to start watching the “Pro Service Outlook 2015” videos today.