USDJPY has been trading sideways recently, bouncing off support at the 112.65 level and resistance at 115.30. Price recently made a test of resistance and seems to be heading back to the bottom of its range again.
The 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA for now so the path of least resistance is to the downside. However, the gap between the two is narrowing so an upward crossover might be due, signaling that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In that case, the pair could attempt to break higher and climb by an additional 250-300 pips.
Stochastic is heading south so sellers are in control at this point, but the oscillator is already dipping into the oversold region. Once it starts heading back up, buyers could regain control and push price further north.
The main event risks for this setup this week are the BOJ decision, the FOMC statement, and the US NFP release. No actual policy changes are expected from the Japanese central bank this week, although they’ve made some changes in their bond-buying program in targeting the yield curve late last week.
Meanwhile, no policy changes are expected from the Fed as well but policymakers could drop some hints on whether or not they can be able to hike interest rates again in March. Trump’s fiscal policy plans are likely to be at the front and center of discussions as market watchers would like to find out how the new administration’s first few days in office have influenced the Fed’s bias.
As for the NFP, another strong jobs figure could reinforce the view that a March rate hike is possible. Analysts are expecting to see 170K in hiring gains, higher than the earlier 156K increase. A weak result, on the other hand, could be bearish for the dollar.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way