USDJPY Major Correction (Nov 15, 2016)

USDJPY has completed its correction to the broken long-term trend line extending all the way back to 1998 so the reversal could resume from here. This coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the swing low and high on the monthly chart, which seems to have held as strong support.


The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame, though, so the path of least resistance might still be to the downside. For now, the 200 SMA is holding as dynamic support.


Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions and is slowly turning higher. This could draw bulls back in the game, giving USDJPY more upside momentum until the next ceiling around the 110.00 level. A move past that area could eventually take USDJPY up to the swing high at 125.00.


Renewed optimism in the US economy after the elections has allowed the Greenback to regain ground against its forex peers. It seems as though investors are looking past the uncertainty and focusing on how lower corporate taxes and higher infrastructure spending could shore up profitability for US companies and overall economic growth.


Apart from that, traders are also turning their attention back to the projected 0.25% rate hike from the FOMC this December. There are several US reports on deck, namely retail sales, CPI, and PPI, so the outcomes could still influence rate hike expectations. Fed Chairperson Yellen also has a testimony lined up for Thursday, and this is expected to be a big mover for dollar pairs.

There are no major reports lined up from the Japanese economy, leaving the yen to return its previous risk-off gains. Besides, data from Japan hasn’t been too impressive so the BOJ isn’t expected to reduce its stimulus efforts anytime soon.


By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way