EURAUD recently broke below support around the 1.4600 major psychological level then dropped to a low of 1.4125. From there, price showed signs of a pullback and is currently testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. Also the gap between the moving averages is widening, indicating stronger selling pressure. The 200 SMA lines up with the 61.8% Fib, adding to its strength as resistance, but a higher pullback could last until the 1.4600 area.
Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions and is starting to turn lower, reflecting a return in bearish momentum. If any of the resistance levels hold, EURAUD could make its way back to the previous lows or lower.
Australia printed a stronger than expected trade balance, as the deficit narrowed from a positively revised 1.82 billion AUD shortfall to 1.23 billion AUD. This was caused by a 2% gain in exports, indicating stronger external demand, and a 1% drop in imports.
Prior to this China printed upbeat PMI readings from the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. The official manufacturing PMI rose from 50.4 to 51.2 while the Caixin version showed a rise from 50.1 to 51.2. The official non-manufacturing PMI climbed from 53.7 to 54.0 while the Caixin version rose from 52.0 to 52.4.
The RBA also gave a relatively optimistic statement this week, citing improvements in commodity prices and trade activity while giving an upbeat outlook for the jobs market. More details are due on Friday, along with Australia’s retail sales report. Data from the euro zone has been mostly upbeat as well, but the region faces uncertainties from the Brexit and its troubled banking sector.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way