The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the session on Wednesday, but bounced off of the 101.50 level to form a bit of a hammer. The hammer of course is a bullish sign, and a break above the top of that hammer could have this market heading back to the upside. Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan will be involved in this pair if it breaks out to significantly, and I have been waiting for supportive candle in order to start going long again. Ultimately, I think that the market will continue to try to grind its way towards the 105 level, but we weren’t quite a bit of volatility from time to time so it makes sense that the markets will go back and forth.
If we can break above the 105 level, the market should then reach towards the 107.50 level after that. I don’t think that it is going to be an easy ride higher, but quite frankly I feel that the buyers are the only site that you can beyond due to the fact that the Bank of Japan will do whatever it takes to keep the 100 level as a “floor” in this market. Ultimately, they could do things such as quantitative easing, direct intervention, or perhaps just jawboning the market.
I think that we are trying to turn this pair around for the longer-term move, and historically speaking the Bank of Japan has fought and fought when it came to turn the market back around. It is normally very volatile time, and as a result we could get quite a bit of shakeup in the market from time to time. Ultimately, this market should offer enough buying opportunities that you could possibly build up a longer-term and large position if you are so inclined by simply getting into the market with small increments and time after time. I have no interest in selling, and at this point in time it’s likely that the markets will offer career changing opportunities for those who are willing to stick them out.