USDJPY has been climbing recently but a reversal pattern just formed, indicating that a downtrend might be next. Price made a double top pattern on the 4-hour time frame and is currently testing the neckline at the 122.50 minor psychological level, with a downside break likely to confirm the selloff.
The chart pattern is approximately 100 pips in height so the resulting breakdown could be of the same size. However, the 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA, which means that the uptrend could still carry on.
Meanwhile, stochastic is on the move up so buying pressure is still present. Similarly, RSI is heading higher so price might follow suit. In that case, a move back to the tops or beyond could be seen.
Event risks for this setup include the release of Japanese spending and inflation reports in today’s Asian trading session. Another decline in household spending and CPI readings are expected, although the BOJ has specified that they’re not looking to expand their easing program anytime soon.
Stronger than expected data could support the BOJ’s confident stance, pushing USDJPY below the neckline support and possibly until the 121.50 handle. US traders are off on the Thanksgiving holidays, which suggests that there might not be enough support for the Greenback.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way