GBPAUD has sold off sharply recently, breaking below a significant support level around 2.1200. From there, the pair dipped to a low of 2.0715 before showing signs of a retracement.
Using the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low on the 4-hour chart shows that the 50% Fibonacci retracement level lines up with the broken support level, which might hold as resistance moving forward. A larger correction could last until the 61.8% Fib while a shallow pullback could reach until the 38.2% Fib at 2.1000.
The 100 SMA is starting to cross below the 200 SMA to indicate a pickup in selling pressure, confirming that GBPAUD could resume its drop at some point and possibly retest its previous lows. However, both stochastic and RSI are pointing up so sellers may allow buyers to take control in the short-term.
Earlier in the week, the BOE Inflation Report hearings reminded traders that the BOE has shifted to a less hawkish stance. According to BOE Governor Carney, interest rates could remain low for quite some time, as opposed to their earlier statements suggesting that they could start tightening monetary policy by early 2016.
Data from Australia has been less upbeat, though, as the quarterly construction work done report indicated a 3.6% drop versus the projected 1.8% decline. Later on, Australia is set to print its quarterly private capital expenditure report and might show a 2.8% slide, a slower pace of decline compared to the previous 4.0% drop.
Other event risks for the pound include the release of the second GDP estimate for Q3 2013. No revisions are expected for the initially reported 0.5% increase but any changes could push the pound in a particular direction.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way