The EUR/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the day on Monday, as we continue to struggle to keep any gains at this point in time. Ultimately, this is a market that has enough bearish pressure on it to continue to drive the value the Euro lower. The 1.05 level below is our target overall, and as a result every time we rally we look at this as an opportunity to play value in the US dollar. The Euro should continue to struggle over the longer term, and therefore we believe that even though it’s a very volatile market at the moment, we will see quite a few opportunities to the short side again and again. You will probably have to focus on short-term charts, but at this point in time it’s only thing that makes sense.
Keep in mind that the central banks of these countries are completely divergent at this point in time, as the European Central Bank has suggested that more stimulus could be on the way, while the Federal Reserve has a decision to make about interest rates which was also going to be influenced by a stronger than anticipated jobs number last month. Because of this, it’s only a matter of time before this market starts to factor in higher interest rates in the United States obviously. With this, we believe that the market will still favor the US dollar, but there is still going to be a considerable amount of confusion when it comes to the markets as there just simply isn’t enough economic growth in either country to make people overly excited.
As you can see, there is an uptrend line that I had marked on this chart previously, as it was the bottom of the ascending triangle that had been so influential in this market. Now that we are broken below there, we believe that there is a massive amount of resistance based upon that uptrend line, and that uptrend line should be very important when it comes down to this market, and with this we are fairly confident in the bearish pressure.