GBPUSD has been trending lower on its 4-hour and 1-hour charts, moving inside a descending channel pattern. Price is currently testing the top of the range around the 1.5450 minor psychological level and might be due for a drop back to the bottom at 1.4950-1.5000.
The 100 SMA is still above the 200 SMA for now, although the moving averages are crossing back and forth. Stochastic formed a slight bearish divergence, with the oscillator making lower highs and price making higher highs. RSI is also heading south, indicating a potential pickup in bearish pressure.
However, a return in bullish momentum could trigger an upside breakout from the channel and further gains for GBPUSD. Price could draw support around 1.5200-1.5250 in the event of a small pullback.
One of the biggest catalysts for this setup is the UK Super Thursday, which consists of the BOE monetary policy statement, MPC meeting minutes, and BOE Inflation Report release. No actual policy changes are expected for this month, but traders are keen to find out of the UK central bank is shifting its monetary policy stance.
For today, the UK services PMI is due and a small rise in activity is eyed. Strong data could revive positive growth prospects and allow the pound to keep up its rally. Analysts are expecting to see a climb from 53.3 to 54.6, most likely because services industry activity picked up during the Rugby World Cup last month.
As for the dollar, the upcoming US jobs release for October could be crucial in determining its trends. Analysts are expecting to see a 179K gain, stronger than the previous 142K increase, with the jobless rate projected to hold steady at 5.1%. Revisions to previous data could also influence Fed rate hike expectations.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way