USDJPY has been trading inside a long-term ascending triangle visible on its daily time frame. Price is testing the triangle resistance near the 122.00 major psychological level right now and may be due for a bounce or a break.
An upside break would confirm that further gains are likely for the pair, spurred possibly by diverging monetary policy expectations for the Fed and the BOJ. While the prospect of a June rate hike has been downplayed, the fact remains that the US central bank is likely to tighten monetary policy sometime this year. On the other hand, the BOJ has mentioned that they are not looking to increase stimulus but data from Japan remains mostly weak.
There are no major event risks from the US during this shortened trading week, as most of the catalysts have already played out last week. The FOMC minutes were released and these confirmed that the central bank is being a little more cautious this time around, as the economy has seen signs of a slowdown.
For Japan though, a bunch of major reports are set for release at the end of the week, which should give traders an idea of whether or not spending is really picking up as the BOJ suggests. Take note that the annualized retail sales and household spending figures would be compared to the post-sales tax hike data, which could mean that positive data might be seen.
From a technical standpoint, the short-term EMA is still cruising above the longer-term EMA on the daily chart, confirming that the long-term rally could stay intact. An upside break past 122.00 could spark around 700 pips in gains, which is roughly the same height as the triangle pattern.
Stochastic is already in the overbought zone though, suggesting that a selloff might take place soon. In that case, price could move back to the triangle support near the 120.00 mark.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way