EURCHF could be in for a break below its descending triangle pattern, as the ongoing quantitative easing program of the European Central Bank has been weighing on the shared currency. At the moment, the pair is still finding support at the 1.0650 minor psychological level but might be due for a break lower.
In that case, EURCHF could tumble by around 150 pips at least, which is the same height as the chart pattern. However, threats of SNB intervention in the currency market to keep the franc weak might limit its gains.
The path of least resistance is still to the downside in terms of fundamentals, as the ECB’s easing program is set to carry on for the next 18 months. This could lead to significant downside for the euro, especially if economic conditions continue to worsen in the region.
There are no major market catalysts lined up from both the euro zone and Switzerland today though, indicating that the consolidation could still carry on. A bounce off the support level could lead up to a move until the 1.0700 major psychological resistance at the top of the triangle.
Stochastic is almost in the oversold area anyway, hinting that selling pressure is already exhausted. If euro bulls step up their game, an upside break from the triangle resistance might even be possible and spark around 150 pips in gains as well.
Take note though that USDCHF is moving close to its highs prior to the SNB decision to scrap the franc peg. This suggests that profit-taking could take place and lead to a franc rally in the near term. If the US retail sales comes in below expectations, USDCHF could be in for a drop and drag down other franc pairs in the process.
Using a straddle setup might work for this pair, as it usually consolidates before making a strong move.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way