ForexPros Daily Analysis June 16, 2010
Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims
Traders await the US Initial Jobless Claims. It is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 450.00K.
The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.2254, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2295 and came very close to the second suggested target 1.2352, stopping only 4 pips before it (yesterday’s high was 1.2348). The Euro proved that it is still capable of going higher, which created a small surprise for us. Yesterday’s top came very close to this month’s top, which was reached on the first day of it: 1.2352. This proves how important this resistance is, that is why it will be our resistance of the day. After hitting yesterday’s top, the price retreated to 1.2307. This retreat, from a well known resistance & a target area means that the “hot” rise for the Euro is going cold! If we break the short term support 1.2307, the Euro will probably give up the latest gains. And it will target the ideal correction targets for the whole rise from 1.1875, which are 1.2167 & 1.2056. On the other hand, the resistance is at 1.2352, and as long as we are below it, dropping more & more from yesterday’s top will be expected. But if we break it we will target the important 1.2452, and later 1.2519.
• 1.2307: important intraday support.
• 1.2167: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rising move from last weeks low to yesterday’s high.
• 1.2056: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rising move from last weeks low to yesterday’s high.
• 1.2352: June 1st high.
• 1.2452: the descending trend line from Apr 14th high.
• 1.2519: May 6th high.
Dollar/Yen broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 91.47, but it did not make it to the suggested target 91.91 (the high at the moment of preparing this report is 91.73). The most important technical event for the past 24 hours was the fact that the ascending trend line from May 20th low, is now at yesterday’s low 91.06. This makes this support the single most important support without a shadow of a doubt! It seems as if we are about to test it, and we suggested keeping an eye at this pair as it gets closer to this level, because this very test is what will determine and set the short term direction. If we break 91.06 the price will drop hard, to 89.81 first, and then to 88.96, both levels are significant and critical support levels. The resistance is provided by short term Fibonacci 61.8% level, at 91.70. If we break this resistance, we will be capable of penetrating 92.07 which stopped us a couple of times, and we will target 92.56 & 93.38.
• 91.06: the rising trend line from May 20th low. The single most important support for the short term.
• 89.81: May 26th low.
• 88.96: May 20th low.
• 91.70: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
• 92.56: Apr 13th low.
• 93.38: Jan 7th high.
Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.
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