Daily FX perspective September 18, 2012 – GFM Research

The Dollar Index is currently trading at critical support of 78.70-78.20; further fall is expected only on the Dollar Index consistently trading below 78.00 ranges. Though the major trend is bearish, the USD seems to be over sold in short-term. The benchmark equity index of the Dow Industrials (.DJIA) is currently trading firm at 13540 ranges; only daily close below 13170 would halt rally though 2007 highs of 14000 ranges would act as major barrier.

Historic correlation between DX Vs DJIA suggests the long-term trend is still dollar bearish till the Dollar Index is not closing above 84.50 on monthly basis. Even the medium term trend has turned bearish after the Dollar Index breached 81.00 ranges and the index seems to be consolidating in 78.70-78.20 ranges.

NYMEX Crude trading weak at $96.05. The short-term trend is range bound between $94.00 and $98.40, either side breakout results in trend.


FX Pair       Trend          Resistance 2    Resistance 1    Support 1    Support 2


EURUSD      Sideways               1.3190             1.3150          1.3050          1.2990
USDJPY      Sideways-Up             79.50              79.00            78.40            78.10
GBPUSD      Sideways               1.6300             1.6265          1.6190          1.6150
USDCHF      Sideways                0.9330             0.9310         0.9250          0.9200
EURJPY      Sideways                104.50             104.00          102.00          101.40
AUDUSD     Down                    1.0540             1.0490          1.0400          1.0380


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