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WEEKLY REVIEW FOR 10 – 14.09, 2012
Euro: The EUR/USD pair showed the greatest growth this week and was able to rise by almost 2.4 %. The euro fell on Monday as Greece’s coalition failed to reach an agreement on reducing the cost of 11.5 billion euros thus renewed fears that the debt crisis will continue to worsen. The euro rocketed against all its competitors on Wednesday, after a German court allowed endorsement of the ESM. The Constitutional Court of Germany ruled, however, that the German contribution to the ESM should not exceed 190 billion euros. The demand for the Euro currency continued to increase after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced a third round of quantitative easing program, which is aimed to support the economy. All in all, the Euro started to feel very confident, as a plan to exit from the debt crisis in the euro area became to have complete forms.
US Dollar: The index of the dollar USDX which displays dollars relation to six major traded currencies in the period from 10 to 14 September lost about 1.3 %. The dollar came under pressure due to announcement of very important decisions made by the ECB of European Union and the Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The ECB will buy the bonds of troubled countries for a period of 1-3 years in an unlimited amount and make the intervention as measures of the immediate response to a fire in the financial markets. The Fed announced the Q3 program where it will buy mortgage securities by another $ 40 billion a month and probably keep rates near zero until at least mid- 2015
British Pound: On Tuesday, the British pound rose after a report showed that the trade deficit in the UK declined in July, because of the rising of export. The market participants find the signs of the economy’s exit from recession. However, on Wednesday, after the report on unemployment rate in the UK showed that the rate rose unexpectedly in July to a level of 8.1% from 8.0 % in June, the British currency fell against its rivals.The rest of this week in the absence of key economic releases and events, the currency traditionally correlated with the euro against the dollar. The GBP / USD pair strengthened to the highs of 1.6256.
Japanese Yen: The USD / JPY pair continued moving down as the dollar weakened on the entire market. However, on Friday the couple jumped by more than 1% to Y78.39 area. The currency lost against all major traded competitors after Finance Minister Jun Azumi said that he made all preparations for intervention in the market to weaken the Yen.
Australian and New Zealand dollars: The currencies took full advantage of the growing demand for risky assets, provoked by the decisions of the Constitutional Court of Germany and the Federal Reserve. The AUD / USD pair reached summer highs at the 1.0611 area and its New Zealand counterpart gone even above the annual maximum of 0.8313.
WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR 17 – 21.09, 2012
The pair is testing the Moving Average (500) at 1.31529. The pair may try to reach resistance level at 1.33427.
Resistance: 1.33427, 1.37441, 1.41130
Support: 1.28800, 1.25667, 1.20280
The pair is trying to break the Moving Average (200) at 1.61931. The pair may try to reach 1.64274.
Resistance: 1.64274, 1.68504, 1.72652
Support: 1.59962, 1.52523, 1.48532
The pair is aiming to the 0.91074. MACD divergence supports downward corrections.
Resistance: 0.93264, 0.96597, 0.99031
Support: 0.91074, 0.88022, 0.85633
The pair is staying below 80.244. The pair may decline to 78.031, next aim is at 76.535.
Resistance: 80.244, 83.330, 86.836
Support: 76.535, 73.126, 69.117
The pair has tested median line and may decline to 1.03847.
Resistance: 1.05810, 1.07806, 1.09604
Support: 1.03847, 1.01873, 1.00031
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