Forex-Metal Daily Analysis -15/08/2012

Market review for 14.08.12: The reports for German and French economical data were quite positive.


Asian and European trading sessions: 

Euro: The Euro strengthened after today’s publication of economical data for German and French economies. The results were quite positive: the French economy unexpectedly managed to avoid a sudden contraction the GDP in II quarter recorded a 0.0% change with forecasted -0.1 %, and a German GDP in the second quarter showed +0.3% which was better than forecasted +0.1% thus slowed less than economists forecast. But this increase was short-lived and market positive sentiment changed as market participants moved on to another important event – the result of euro area GDP. The Euro began to decline in anticipation of the release of the data. The Eurozone’s gross domestic product fell for the second quarter by 0.2%, which was in line with expectations, however showed a slowdown in economy because the GDP change in the first quarter growth was zero. The EUR / USD pair during the European session reached a high of $ 1.2387, and then declined to $ 1.2355 level. 

British Pound: The GBP / USD pair approached to the level of $ 1.5700 during the Asian session. After the publication of the report on housing prices in the UK in July, the result of which recorded decline to -24 from -22, the pound fell against its competitors. The released data showed the lowest rate for the year and once again confirmed the weakness of the British economy. The consumer price index, which was also released today, recorded a growth by 2.6% on an annual basis, compared to 2.4% in June with economists’ expectations of the 2.3% change. The GBP / USD pair reacted vigorously during the publication: it updated the yesterday’s high at first, then dropped sharply and finally stabilized at the $ 1.5700 area. 

Japanese Yen: The USD / JPY pair showed a steady growth today gradually approaching to the level of resistance Y78.78. The Yen weakened against all major traded currencies after the Bank of Japan reported that the politicians were considering the possibility of extension of incentives to support economic growth. 

New Zealand dollar: The volume of retail sales in New Zealand in the second quarter grew by 1.3%. The result was very positive compared to decline of 0.6 % in the first quarter. The New Zealand dollar rose against most currencies after the publication of those positive statistics. 

American trading session: 

U.S. Dollar: The Dollar covered back all of its losses against the Euro occurred during the first half of the day due to the positive statistics from France and Germany. The EUR / USD pair fell after the United States provided data on the retail sales and producer price index, the results of which eventually helped the dollar to establish a new session low of this couple. 

Gold: The Gold futures fell on publication of the retail sales of U.S. the positive result of which might cancel all expectations of new round of easing monetary policy by the Federal Reserve System. The cost of the August Gold futures reached a low of 1591.1 dollars per ounce, and then stabilized at around 1600.4 dollars per ounce on the COMEX today.

Silver: The Silver’s futures went the same negative way as Gold’s. The cost of the August Silver futures closed around 27.8 dollars per ounce on the COMEX today.

Oil: The cost of the WTI September closed today at $ 93.50 a barrel. The Oil futures grew against the publication of economic data on the U.S. ,Germany, and France, which came out better than expected.


Technical analysis for 15.08


The pair’s resistance 1.23907, support is 1.21813. The pair may rise to the Moving Average (100) at 1.25690. 
Resistance: 1.23907, 1.25690, 1.26897 
Support: 1.21813, 1.19332, 1.16742 
The pair is trying to break and stay above 1.56722, it may bring pair to rise to 1.58543. 
Resistance: 1.56722, 1.58543, 1.60322 
Support: 1.54842, 1.53482, 1.52063 
The pair is working out Head and Shoulders figure. The end of the figure maybe expected at 0.95670. MACD divergence supports pair’s downward corrections. 
Resistance: 0.97427, 0.98512, 0.99248 
Support: 0.96220, 0.95047, 0.93949 
The pair’s resistance 79.070, support is 78.345. 
Resistance: 79.070, 79.707, 80.438 
Support: 78.345, 77.539, 76.463 
The pair rolled back to 1.05332 and stays below this level. The pair may decline to the next support level 1.04407. 
Resistance: 1.05332, 1.06164, 1.07005 
Support: 1.04407, 1.03535, 1.02558