Forex-Metal Daily Analysis -01/08/2012

Market review for 31.07.12: The unemployment rate of Japan unexpectedly fell in June.


Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: Again, speech of the President of the ECB, Mr. Draghi from the two days ago meeting about promising to do whatever is possible for saving the Euro union supported the demand for the Euro currency today. The EUR / USD pair rebounded after yesterday’s fall and strengthened to the level of $1.2329 during the European trading session. In addition, the Euro also rose against many other traded currencies in anticipation of the positive result of ECB meeting, which will be held on August 2. There were speculations and rumors on markets today regarding the resumption of the program of purchases of sovereign bonds by the ECB and the EFSF as well as the new measures for stimulating the Eurozone economy that the ECB may hint about in its monthly circulation which will take place on Thursday.

British Pound: The pound fell for the first time in four days against almost all major currencies after the rating agency Moody’s downgraded the outlook for UK economy. In addition, the Consumer Confidence report which has been published on Monday showed that the UK industry stuck this month due to the fact that the recession got worse. The GBP / USD pair rose slightly during the Asian trading session and accelerated its downtrend throughout the European session substantially declining to the level of $1.5624.

Japanese Yen: The unemployment rate of Japan unexpectedly fell in June to the 4.3% versus 4.4% as it was predicted and compared the result of 4.4% in May. As the result, the USD / JPY pair grew up during the Asian session to the level Y78.29. This level has been tested twice during today’s sessions. However, the pair couldn’t go higher than that and moved down to the Y78.03 area.

American trading session:

Australian dollar: The Australian dollar tried for many times to overcame the 1.0560 level trading against the U.S. dollar. The currency got support today by the result of the House Price Index which for the second quarter of the 2012 in QoQ basis came out positive with 0.5% change versus the forecasted decrease of -0.5%.

Gold: The Gold prices fell on the COMEX today fell to 1610.4 dollars per troy ounce in anticipation of the end of a two-day Fed meeting. The markets were full of rumors about the result of the Fed meeting where the regulators may estimate the amount of the money for injecting into the U.S. economy.

Silver: The Silver futures also slightly fell today on COMEX. The price reached the $27.9 per troy ounce area.

Oil: The Oil dropped on results of the report for consumer spending and income in the U.S. as well as on the news from Germany. The cost of the September WTI futures on the NYMEX fell to $ 87.31 per barrel.


Technical analysis for 1.08


The pair’s resistance 1.23907, support 1.21813. 
Resistance: 1.23907, 1.25690, 1.26897 
Support: 1.21813, 1.19332, 1.16742 
The pair is testing Moving Average (200) 1.57483. 
Resistance: 1.58543, 1.60322, 1.62050 
Support: 1.56722, 1.54842, 1.53482 
MACD divergence warns of possible corrections. First aim is at 0.97427, second aim 0.96220. 
Resistance: 0.98512, 0.99248, 1.00168 
Support: 0.97427, 0.96220, 0.95047 
If the pair stays below 78.345 the pair will decline to 77.439. 
Resistance: 78.345, 79.070, 79.707 
Support: 77.539, 76.463, 75.425 
The pair is aiming to 1.05332. If this level is broken the pair will rise to 1.06164. 
Resistance: 1.05332, 1.06164, 1.07005 
Support: 1.04407, 1.03535, 1.02558