Market review for 19 – 23. 09, 2011
The previous trading week demonstrated how the major fundamental releases supported the US dollar, which strengthened against its major competitors.
The Euro started this week with the losses against the greenback, since European leaders could not come to a mutual decision on how to stop spreading of the debt crises in the EU. Investors were very negative towards the euro, and the EUR/USD showed minimums below the $1.3600. The pair traded in the range of $1.3586-$1.3720 during Monday. Meanwhile the dollar strengthened against the main currencies against the background of the world major stock markets drop, which lead to the increased demand for the safe heaven currencies.
The sterling renewed its yearly minimum around the $1.5630 on that day. Later on the GBP/USD managed to rehabilitate and reach the $1.5725 range.
American session demonstrated a change in the trading dynamics on Monday. Greenback started to weaken against the major competitors. The new stage of the negotiations between the representatives of Greece, Euro-zone, IMF and the ECB has been called “efficient”. A new spin of optimism pushed euro to its temporary maximum of $1.3700, and the pound strengthened above the $1.5700.
Due to the fact that the S&P rating agency downgraded Italy’s credit rating (from ?+/?-1+ to ?/?-1) and decreased its forecast to negative on Tuesday, the Euro began this trading day with substantial losses against the US Dollar. During the Asian trading session the EUR/USD pair fell below the $1.36 level, yet didn’t decrease further from this point and even set its session’s maximums above the $1.3670 zone. Later on, against the background of the raising European stock market, and, subsequently, the US Dollar decrease, the Euro currency strengthened towards the $1.3750 area and recorded its daily highs at $1.3744. Also, the support for the Euro came after the publication of the Economic Sentiment Index from the German Institute ZEW, which in September decreased to the level -43.3 versus forecasted -45.
After the publication of the Australian Reserve Bank’s Board of September Minutes, where is was mentioned that the Reserve Bank of Australia was not going to lower the discount rate, the Australiandollar strengthened substantially against the major currencies.
Against the backdrop of unjustified speculations relative to the fact that NBS would undertake actions to return its national currency to the 1.25 level against the Euro, the Swiss Franc dropped against all major currencies on Tuesday.
According to the released FOMC decision, the rate was left at the previous level of 0.25%. Following this publication, the greenback strengthened against the euro and the pound. The EUR/USD reached the $1.3700 mark, and the GBP/USD reached the $1.5600 mark. The decision of the FOMC Committee revealed that the FRS was not going to start the QE program. Instead, the FOMC announced the ”Twist” operation, when the long-term Treasury bonds for amount of $ 400 billion were supposed to be bought by the end of June 2012 with the following sale of the short-term Treasury bonds for the same amount. As a consequence, the dollar strengthened against all major currencies and brought down all its pairs AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD to their annual lows.
But during the American trading session the Euro managed to rehabilitate and the EUR/USD pair returned to the $1,3550 mark. The news that the EC would speed up the recapitalization of the 16 European banks supported the euro.
The Japanese yen traded in the range of Y77.00 – Y76.00 by the end of week.
Weekly technical analysis for 26 – 30. 09
EURUSD
The pair is aiming to Fibonacci level 38% at 1.30370.
Resistance: 1.37441, 1.41130, 1.44835
Support: 1.33427, 1.28800, 1.25667
GBPUSD
The pair is aiming to Fibonacci 23%. 1.53419.
Resistance: 1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504
Support: 1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344
USDCHF
The pair is aiming to Moving Average (100) at 0.95470.
Resistance: 0.91074, 0.93264, 0.96597
Support: 0.88022, 0.85633, 0.82723
USDJPY
The pair has declined to support level at 76.535 and if the pair stays below this level the pair will decline to 73.126.
Resistance: 80.244, 83.330, 86.836
Support: 76.535, 73.126, 69,117
AUDUSD
The pair has declined to the Moving Average (100) at 0.97417. If the pair stays below this level the pair will decline to the next Moving Average (200) at 0.91278.
Resistance: 0.97889, 1.00031, 1.01873
Support: 0.94417, 0.89581, 0.85561