Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 23, 2009
Fundamental Analysis: Core Durable Goods Orders
Traders await the announcement of the Core Durable Goods Orders tomorrow (Dec. 24).
The Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for durable goods, excluding transportation.
Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of orders trends.
Higher reading indicates activity increase by manufacturers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts forecast a reading of 1.00%, up from the previous reading of -1.30%.
The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.4260, but it stopped half way between the support & the target, as yesterday’s low was 1.4216. It looks from the channel drawn on the attached chart that 1.4298 is the limit the separates the continuation of the downtrend from its reversal, since it combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100. As long as the price is below this level, the downtrend will continue, looking for fresh lows below Friday’s low 1.4260. Short-term support is at 1.4238 and breaking it would increase confidence in the downtrend, and would target 1.4153 and then the bottom of the channel which is currently at 1.4030. A break of today’s most important resistance 1.4298 would cause a jump to 1.4446, and then to 1.4502, and later to Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term 1.4596.
• 1.4238: Fibonacci 38.2% for the micro-term.
• 1.4153: Jul 2nd high.
• 1.4030: the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly chart, and Aug 18th low.
• 1.4298: the most important resistance for today, which combines the top of the channel with the moving average SMA100.
• 1.4446: Aug 5th high.
• 1.4502: Dec 15th low.
In opposition to our expectations, Dollar-Yen broke 91.30, penetrating through the moving average SMA100, and breaking the top of the channel that we introduced. This break, even though it is in an opposite direction of our short-term technical outlook, should not be ignored. The price is invited to show strength against the resistance 91.78 (currently trading pips below it), and if broken, a test of the area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52 will be only a matter of time. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53. On the other hand, if the price fails to create a sustained break of 91.78, a drop towards 90.90 where the moving average SMA100 is waiting, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.03, and if broken we are to see 89.55.
• 90.90: intraday support.
• 90.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.85.
• 89.55: previous important intraday low.
• 91.78: Jul 8th low.
• 92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops.
• 93.53: Mar 19h low.
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