The New Zealand Dollar is starting to falter and like most of its G-10 counterparts it is holding at pivotal levels against the Greenback. One slip either way may send the currency tumbling or ready to resume its advance on the Dollar. We have mentioned the Kiwi in the past as we feel it may yield the biggest percentage loss when the Dollar does finally rally.
In the graph below we see the formation of a downward sloping Triangle beginning to emerge. The Kiwi has been riding the 50 day SMA as support on its path to .7600. You can observe that NZD peaked in late October but after 3 attempts it has failed to break the October high.
Short term support has been holding near .7100 represented by the bottom leg of the triangle. As the hypotenuse converges on near term support the more likely it is that a breakout will occur in the direction of the slope. We have also diagrammed a pattern we use often to identify trend and that is a step pattern whereby there are lower high’s and lower lows (or vice versa as the case maybe). Typically we like to see more obvious lower lows than what the Kiwi has shown us thus far.
The NZD is currently sitting below its 50 day MA, which we mentioned prior, represented support for the NZD’s move over the last 9 months. During the Dollar’s rally last week the Kiwi was able to bounce off of the 100 day MA but was not able to bounce back above the 50 SMA. As price action moves into the wedge of the triangle it may force price below the 100 SMA.
For good measure we added a Fibonacci Retrace starting back in March when the Kiwi dipped below .50 running through its most recent high in October when the NZD struck .7635. This data range produces the 23.6% Fibo Retrace at a handle of .6988. To trigger a strong short signal the Kiwi would need to take out the 100 day MA, near term support (the base leg of the triangle), and the Fibo 23.6% level, as we then target a .6500 handle. In order to resume a Long NZD position at this point the NZD would need to break north of the hypotenuse, the 50 day MA, and near term resistance at .7525.