Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 14, 2009
Fundamental Analysis: ZEW Economic Sentiment Report
German traders await publication of the ZEW Economic Sentiment Report, which will be released tomorrow (Dec 14).
The report determines sentiment among German institutional investors, with analysts expecting a slight increase from last month’s 50.10 to 50.20.
The Economic Sentiment Report is a leading indicator of business conditions. The reading is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Euro surpassed the resistance 1.4734 but stopped very close to Wednesday’s high, before reversing, and breaking the support 1.4692, and then reaching the first suggested target 1.4610. The rising trendline from Tuesday’s low (and the lower limit for the supposed triangle pattern) is currently very close to Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 1.4701. This makes this double resistance the most important, and only breaking it would improve the technical outlook for the Euro. If broken, we will enter a correction for the whole drop from 1.5139, which will target 1.4796 at least, and probably 1.4826. As for the support it is at 1.4656 and breaking it would mean that the rising correction from Friday’s low is probably over, and that would target 1.4597 and then 1.4510.
• 1.4656: rising trendline on the intraday charts.
• 1.4597: important intraday low from Friday.
• 1.4510: previous support area that includes several daily lows.
• 1.4701: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the lower trendline in the supposed triangle formation that was broken on Friday.
• 1.4796: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.5139.
• 1.4826: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.5139.
Dollar-Yen broke the resistance 89.05 and successfully reached the first target 89.45, then came close to 90, settling for 89.79. this morning the price dropped to 88.36 again, to find the trendline that we introduced in the past few days providing it with support. That was the 4th time the price encountered this line, which clearly means it deserves our attention. That is why we will consider it as support of the day, and it is currently running at 88.43. If it’s broken, the drop from 89.79 will continue and the next pair of targets will be Fibonacci support levels at 87.78 & 87.08. As for the resistance, it is provided by the falling trendline from 89.79 on the intraday charts, which is currently at 88.87. And if broken, another 89.45 visit will be expected, and if this is also broken, we will jump to 90.08 at least.
• 88.43: a trendline that touched price 4 times.
• 87.78: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
• 87.08: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 84.81 to 90.75.
• 88.87: the falling trendline from Friday’s top on the intraday charts.
• 89.45: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 90.08: hourly resistance.
Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See our new commodities section on Forexpros.
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