USDJPY could be in for more gains from here as price broke past the neckline of its inverse head and shoulders formation. This is considered a classic reversal signal and spans 200 pips, so the uptrend could last by the same height.
However, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA on the 4-hour time frame so the path of least resistance might still be to the downside. Stochastic is also dipping into overbought territory to signal a potential slowdown in the rally.
The US dollar remained supported by positive NFP expectations, even as another report signaled a potential disappointment. Challenger job cuts rose 35K in November, up 30.1% on a year-over-year basis and 17% from the previous month. Still, initial jobless claims indicated good momentum as claimants dropped to 236K versus 239K. Consumer credit also advanced, signaling financial optimism.
The NFP is expected to show a 198K gain in hiring for November, down from the previous 261K increase. Average hourly earnings could recover by 0.3% after staying flat in the previous month, with positive wage growth likely funneling to upside inflationary pressure later on.
As for the yen, the final GDP reading enjoyed an upgrade from 0.3% to 0.6% versus the 0.4% consensus. The current account balance also beat expectations but average cash earnings disappointed with a 0.6% uptick versus the projected 0.8% rise.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way