AUDUSD previously broke past the resistance around the .7750 minor psychological level then zoomed up to the .8100 area. From there, price retreated from the rally and is showing signs of a correction to the broken resistance.
Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing low and high on the daily time frame reveals that the 50% level lines up with the area of interest. This also lines up with the 100 SMA, which is above the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside. The 200 SMA coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which might be the last line of defense for the uptrend.
Stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions, so sellers are exhausted and ready to let buyers take over. If so, AUDUSD could resume its climb up to the swing high or higher. On the other hand, a move below the Fibs could pave the way for a drop to the swing low.
There are several event risks lined up for the Australian dollar this week, including the RBA interest rate statement and the release of the retail sales and trade balance figures. No actual policy changes are expected from the RBA but any shift in their bias could determine where the Aussie is headed in the longer run.
Meanwhile, the US has its NFP due on Friday and this could generate a lot of attention since Fed head Yellen previously talked about how the Fed might have overestimated the strength of the labor market. Analysts are expecting to see a mere 88K gain in hiring, which might still douse December hike expectations especially if underlying components reflect more weaknesses.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way