AUDJPY Correction Levels (Aug 04, 2017)

AUDJPY staged a strong rally recently but appears to be topping out at the 89.00 area. A correction could be due before this pair heads any further north, and applying the Fibonacci tool on the latest swing low and high on the daily time frame shows that the 23.6% level lines up with a former resistance.

If this area of interest holds as support, price could make another attempt at breaking past the 89.00 to 90.00 ceiling and establishing a stronger climb. On the other hand, a larger pullback could still find support at the 38.2% Fib near 86.50 or until the 61.8% Fib at 85.00.

The 100 SMA crossed below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. However, these moving averages could still hold as dynamic support since they line up with the lowest Fib. Stochastic is heading down but is nearing oversold levels to signal that buyers could return to the game.

The RBA refrained from making any policy changes in their statement this week while maintaining their neutral bias. Data has been somewhat weaker than expected, though, particularly when it comes to trade activity so the central bank might sit on its hands for much longer.

As for the yen, the BOJ also kept its policy unchanged, contrary to some expectations that they could be more dovish. This allowed the yen to hold on to its gains and even take some risk-off flows away from the US dollar. Earlier today, the Japanese average cash earnings figure missed expectations and posted a 0.4% drop.

Up ahead, the NFP report could impact yen pairs since US bond yields tend to influence demand for the lower-yielding Japanese currency. A stronger than expected result could fuel demand for the dollar and lead to yen weakness while downbeat data could support the yen instead of the dollar.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way